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5/13/21

Will Corona’s second wave break the backbone of the rural economy; Big crisis in health and livelihood, rural people are being crushed amidst this double burden





The backbone of the economy:Will Corona’s second wave break the backbone of the rural economy; Big crisis in health and livelihood, rural people are being crushed amidst this double burden





Rural unemployment rose to 7.29 per cent from 6.37 per cent. Urban unemployment reached a level of about 12 percent
Once again, a good monsoon will be a ray of hope for the country's economy



Another wave of deadly epidemics of the corona virus has spread to rural areas through cities and towns. While the Indian economy was struggling to recover from last year's Corona Wave, the second Corona Wave has proved fatal amid the deteriorating condition of our rural health infrastructure. The number of people infected with the corona and the number of deaths due to it is much higher in rural areas than in cities. The situation is becoming very precarious even in terms of employment as the utter lack of medical facilities in rural areas has created an extraordinary health crisis in the Corona period. In addition, the corona is putting a huge economic burden on the rural people, so that the country's rural economy (rural people) is being crushed amidst double trouble.
The second wave has a more serious impact on the rural economy than the first

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In the first wave the virus was limited enough to the urban epidemic. On the other hand, many economists believe that the rapid spread of the corona epidemic in rural areas may delay the recovery of various sectors of the economy in the coming days as severe lockdowns are imposed in many states and longer than the first wave of corona. Can run up to.
In addition, the rate of transition in rural areas is at alarming levels, leading to widespread fear among rural people. The lack of corona testing in rural areas is such that the number of corona cases in these areas is not being considered.

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At the village level the transition situation became dire

According to a research paper by State Bank of India (SBI) in April, 2021, the proportion of new cases in rural districts accounted for 45.5 per cent as against 37.9 per cent in March. According to a May 7 report by the State Bank of India, the outbreak in rural areas is worrying. That is, the share of rural districts in new cases rose to 45.5 per cent in April and 48.5 per cent in May from 37 per cent in March.

At the rural level, the unemployment rate was 8.67 percent

For the week ended May 9, the national unemployment rate rose to 8.67 per cent from 7.4 per cent in the previous fortnight. The rural unemployment rate also rose to 7.29 per cent from 6.37 per cent during the period.
Urban unemployment rose to 11.72 per cent during the period, up from 9.55 per cent for the week ended April 25, according to the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). Unemployment in urban areas has reached close to 12 per cent, the highest in the last 10 months.

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Various rating agencies downgraded their estimates of economic growth

Amid Corona's position in the country, various rating agencies have downgraded their ratings in relation to economic growth.
Moody's Investors Services has downgraded India's growth rate for FY2022 from 13.7 per cent to 9.3 per cent.
Nomura also cut its estimate from 10.9 per cent to 12.6 per cent.
JP Morgan has been reduced from 13 per cent to 11 per cent while UBS has been reduced from 11.5 per cent to 10 per cent.

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A steep climb at the village level for the auto and FMCG sector during the Corona era

Sales of tractors grew with a strong recovery in the rural economy before planting began in May-June last year. Due to strong demand, about 9 lakh tractors were sold during the period, which was the highest during the entire financial year.
In addition, sales in other segments of the auto sector, especially two-wheelers, cars, light commercial vehicles, were good.
However, corona has spread widely in rural areas this year, which could affect the auto sector. A similar situation can be seen in the FMCG sector.

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Again a good monsoon will be a ray of hope for the rural economy

During Corona's initiative, rural India helped to sustain and energize the country's economic growth. The agriculture sector is projected to grow by 7.2 per cent in the financial year 2020-21.
The economic situation that prevails today is not much different from the same period last year. But this year the rural economy is in the throes of Corona. On the other hand, if the second wave of corona epidemic in the country reaches a high level by June, the GDP could reach 8.2 per cent in FY2021-22.
Amid the Corona epidemic, the meteorological department has forecast a normal monsoon in the country this year, with the help of good rains, the rural economy could be in a strong position among the Corona.

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